Image by thinkpanama via FlickrBaby Boomers retirement is one of the themes that keeps popping up on blogs all over the web, and indeed in mainstream print as well lately.
As a boomer, but towards the end of the bubble I am becoming even more concerned over what is likely to happen to the world economy in the next few years. As with most people, I have hit a few financial roadbumps along the way and now wonder if my nestegg will be enough. I am sure I am not Robinson Crusoe when it comes to this!
One guy that seems to have been spot on with many forecasts over the past 15-20 years is Harry Dent. His new slant on things takes into account first and foremost, yes - Baby Boomers. We as a group are so much bigger than the population groups both ahead and behind that we as a group have unduly influenced fads and trends since we were tots and consumed huge quantities of Gerber baby food.
We continue to and the in the near future it is the real estate market and the stresses on medical services that will test not just us as a group but our society and the world economy as a whole.
For example, in the US alone 76+ million baby boomers are going to be moving into smaller houses or even retirement homes. Who is going to buy your house? There aren’t enough x and y gen following to take up the slack.
Anyway…..don’t take my word. Here are a couple of paragraphs from Wikipedia re Mr Dent and his theories: “In the early 1990s, he predicted that the DOW would reach 10k. This prediction was met with much skepticism. In 2000, he predicted that the DOW would reach 40k, a prediction which was repeated in his 2004 book. In his book, he also predicted the Nasdaq will reach 13-20k. In January 2006, he predicted that the DOW would reach 14-15,000 by the end of the year. It ended 2006 at 12463, 11% below the lower end of his prediction. It ended 2007 at 13264, again significantly lower than Dent’s revised prediction of 15000 by early 2008. Since then, the Dow crossed 14,000 in late 2007 before retrenching.”
He has been spot on as you can see. But what worries me are the following:
“In contemporary economics, Harry Dent has popularized the baby-boomer age-wave theory. According to him, as a result of baby boomers retiring, the US stock-market will peak between 2007 and 2009. This prediction is based on his observation that consumer spending peaks near age 50.
Schieber and Shoven suggest gradual peaking of social security trust fund around 2007-2009.
Some experts expect the worst consumer recession since 1980 as aging boomers start retiring, adding to rising unemployment, decline in house values, and declining stock prices. However other experts have suggested that immigration to the US and rise of emerging economies will offset the demographic impact”.
Just food for thought…….. Is the big house you are in going to hold its value? What of the retirement nest egg, and should that be looked at again if we go into a drepression as is predicted?
Sure things will go up in the long run…..but how long? How old are you now?
Filed under Health and Fitness, Insurance, Lifestyle by admin
